Russia is destroying Georgia, our closest ally among the former Soviet republics, and we're powerless to do anything about it. Why? Once again, we can look to Iraq.
Before I go into that explanation, let me first say that, yes, Georgia somewhat brought this upon themselves by first moving into South Ossetia. They had to expect a Russian response, and Russia doesn't play around. Still, the overreaching aggressiveness of Russia's response indicates that they were just waiting for the opportunity to attack and reclaim Georgia as part of their empire. They aren't simply defending South Ossetia, they're invading Georgia.
As I previously stated, Georgia is our closest ally among the former Soviet republics. They have a pro-Western democratic government intent on joining NATO, and are led by a U.S.-educated president. The U.S. has welcomed their alliance, and has typically always backed Georgia in any political differences between Georgia and Russia. We've hoped that their pro-Western democracy would be a model for the other former Soviet republics.
Georgia is now in trouble. They simply don't have the military capability to fend off a Russian invasion. They've now got most of their troops situated around the capital, having already conceded much of the rest of the country to Russian attack. Russia isn't simply attacking strategic military targets either; they're bombing indiscriminately, killing off hundreds of civilians who have nothing to do with this conflict. So why aren't we helping? Simply put, we can't.
Between Afghanistan, and more prominently, Iraq, we simply don't have the manpower to put any kind of real force into Georgia. Our military is already way over-extended. So while W is on the tele offering up all sorts of forceful statements urging Russia to halt its invasion, Russia knows that we cannot back up our words with any action. Without the U.S. leading, the other NATO nations aren't likely to take up the charge. So what's to stop Putin & Co. from their expansion? Who has Georgia's back? Nobody.
We may be witnessing the key event exposing the United States' waning influence as sole superpower in the world. Russia, our former Cold War enemy, is engaging in military aggression against a key ally and we can't respond. We're in a trade deficit with China, and they also are the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt. We don't have exclusive military might and our economic power is weak. Also, Russia is very rich in oil, and China has a growing thirst for oil as their industrialization and consumerism grows. For each, the United States is becoming less and less of a need.
While Iraq explains our inability to respond militarily right now, what does it have to do with China? We're spending something like $12 billion per month on the Iraq war right now. Do you think that strengthens or weakens the dollar? Creates surpluses or deficits? As the dollar weakens, so grows our trade deficit. As our national debt grows, so grows the opportunity for foreign investors to buy up that debt. Who's on the good side of that trade imbalance and who's buying up that debt? China, China, China.
Russia isn't too worried about Europe forming much of a forceful response to their attack in Georgia without the lead of the United States, as Russia supplies Europe with roughly 45% of their energy (oil) supplies. Europe isn't going to risk losing that. If they do though, Russia likely has a backup ready customer in China, with their ever-growing thirst for oil.
China isn't too worried about all of the United States' tough talk about their human rights violations, lack of stance on Darfur and Iran, their artificial devaluation of the yen, etc., because they quite literally own us. Also, as Russia's economy continues to grow (because of the burgeoning oil revenues and clever embrace of capitalism), not to mention India's, they have ready consumer markets rising up to make up for any decline in U.S. purchasing. Whereas they still need our consumer market, they less and less need to solely rely on it alone.
Militarily weak. Economically weak. The U.S. is definitely losing its superpower status. So where does that leave our allies who have traditionally relied on us when their chips are down? Well, it looks like Georgia is on the verge of finding out.
Monday, August 11, 2008
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